Markets, 23 October 2026
Oil jumps, metals slip, HRC climbs: margins get squeezed from both ends
What moved
- Oil spiked. Brent rose about 4.5% to around $113.8 a barrel and WTI rose about 3% to about $100. Brent is up about 15% in a month.
- Base metals fell. COMEX copper dropped about 2.4% to roughly $14,085 a tonne and aluminium fell about 2.7% to $3,092. Copper is down about 5% in a month and aluminium is down about 11%. Zinc was flat at $3,944 (as of 21 October).
- Steel went the other way. US Midwest HRC futures rose about 4% to roughly $1,476 a metric tonne, up about 8% in a month. Shanghai rebar slipped to 3,056 yuan a tonne. This is the first day it’s on the board, so there’s no weekly change yet.
- Risk off. The S&P 500 fell 1.2% and the Nasdaq fell 2.6%. The EEM emerging-markets ETF fell 2.9%. Gold dropped about 3% to around $4,027. The DFM closed at 5,818 and the ADX at 9,702. Changes for those two will appear once the board has stored a few days of history.
- Rates and the dollar. The 2-year Treasury was at 4.81% and the 10-year at 5.13% (21 October), with the 10-year up 17 basis points in a month. The dollar index eased 0.2% to 101.5.
- Slow-moving indexes (September): the US PPIs for copper wire and cable (+0.8%), steel wire drawing (+0.6%) and cement (flat) all edged higher or held steady.
The truth: For UAE cable, electrical and construction suppliers, today’s board pulls two ways. Cheaper copper and aluminium help anyone buying conductor metal for cable or overhead lines. A 5–11% monthly drop is real money on a tender priced a month ago. But the gain is uneven. Steel, the input for wire, mesh, fencing, towers and rebar, is getting more expensive, and HRC is up 8% in a month. Oil above $110 is good news for Gulf budgets and project pipelines, but it pushes up freight, energy and galvanising costs right now. A 5% US 10-year, with the dirham pegged to the dollar, keeps local financing expensive. The practical read is to lock in metal-price escalation clauses, quote steel-heavy work on short validity and not assume that cheaper copper means cheaper jobs.
Sources and as-of dates for every number are on the Markets board.