Markets, 24 October 2026
Oil keeps climbing, metals bounce, and Treasury yields drop sharply
What moved
- Oil kept going. Brent rose about 3.1% to around $116.7 a barrel and WTI rose about 3.8% to about $103.3. Brent is now up about 13% in a month.
- Metals bounced. COMEX copper rose about 1.8% to roughly $14,277 a tonne, still down about 3% in a month. Aluminium rose about 2.4% to $3,269, up 5% on the week but down about 5% in a month. Zinc was flat at $3,944.
- Steel edged up. US Midwest HRC futures rose about 0.5% to roughly $1,424 a metric tonne, up about 4.5% in a month. Shanghai rebar slipped slightly to 3,051 yuan a tonne. There’s no weekly change for rebar yet.
- Rates fell hard. The 2-year Treasury dropped 16 basis points to 4.65% and the 10-year dropped 17 basis points to 4.96% (22 October). The dollar index was little changed at 101.8.
- Stocks mixed, Gulf lower. The S&P 500 fell 0.5% and the Nasdaq 0.2%. The EEM emerging-markets ETF rose 0.5%. The DFM fell about 1.4% to 5,734 and the ADX about 1.2% to 9,588. Gold fell about 1.3% to around $4,008, down about 7% in a month.
- Slow-moving indexes (September, unchanged since yesterday): the US PPIs for copper wire and cable (+0.8%), steel wire drawing (+0.6%) and cement (flat).
The truth: For UAE cable, electrical and construction suppliers, yesterday’s metal discount shrank a bit. Copper and aluminium both bounced, so the monthly cushion on conductor metal is now about 3–5%, not 5–11%. Don’t bank on it lasting. Oil near $117 is the bigger story. It’s good for Gulf budgets and the project pipeline, but freight, energy and galvanising costs are rising now, and the DFM and ADX both fell anyway. The welcome surprise is rates. The US 10-year falling back under 5% matters here because the dirham is pegged to the dollar, so local financing could ease if it holds. One day isn’t a trend. My read is the same as yesterday: keep metal escalation clauses in, keep quote validity short on steel-heavy and energy-heavy work, and don’t price in cheaper money until it’s actually cheaper.
Sources and as-of dates for every number are on the Markets board.