Markets, 4 November 2026
Copper drops again, oil drifts lower, steel holds its gains
What moved
- Copper keeps sliding. COMEX copper is around $13,830 a tonne, down about 2.2% from Tuesday’s close of about $14,138, and down about 6% on the week. Aluminium is around $3,159, down about 0.4% today and 0.9% on the week. Zinc still hasn’t updated since 23 October ($3,944), so it’s stale.
- Oil drifts lower. Brent closed Tuesday at about $104.40 and is around $103.20 this morning, down about 1.1%. WTI is around $95.70, also down about 1.1%. Both are down about 6% on the week, mostly from Monday’s drop. The monthly figures still span the late-September contract roll, so I’m ignoring them.
- Steel holds. US Midwest HRC is around $1,553 a tonne in the 3 November session, up about 0.2% on the day and about 7.9% on the month. Shanghai rebar is 2,994 yuan a tonne, down about 2.5% on the week.
- Gold steadies. It’s around $3,946 an ounce, up about 0.2% today but down about 3% on the week and 5% on the month.
- Stocks, Tuesday’s closes. The S&P 500 closed at about 7,569, up about 0.4%, and the Nasdaq at about 25,372, up about 0.8%, though it’s still down about 4% on the week and 7% on the month. Emerging markets (EEM) closed at 61.10, flat. At home the DFM was flat at 5,811 and the ADX slipped about 0.3% to 9,463, down about 7% on the month.
- Rates and the dollar. The latest Treasury yields are from 2 November: the 2-year at 4.59%, up 3 basis points, and the 10-year at 4.91%, down 3. Over the month they’re down about 24 and 37 basis points. The dollar index is around 101.4, down about 0.5%. The monthly US PPIs for copper wire and cable, steel wire drawing and cement are still the September figures.
The truth: Copper is the story today. Down about 6% in a week, it’s now a real cushion for anyone pricing cable and conductor-heavy jobs, and it’s the first time in a while that conductor costs are moving in buyers’ favour. I wouldn’t cut list prices on one week, but I’d stop padding copper quotes for further rises. Oil easing toward $103 keeps freight and energy a little cheaper, and it’s still a comfortable level for Gulf budgets, so project spending shouldn’t feel it. Steel is still the problem: HRC is up nearly 8% on the month, and that feeds into wire, mesh, fencing, towers and rebar. A softer dollar and lower long yields help financing a touch, and with the dirham pegged that carries over here. Keep steel-heavy quotes short, keep escalation clauses in, and watch whether copper’s slide holds. Not investment advice.
Sources and as-of dates for every number are on the Markets board.